CFB Weekend Preview #9

#2 Florida vs. #10 Georgia

Florida is currently favored by 6 1/2 which honestly seems a bit high to me. Georgia has a vibe around it which doesn't seem to fit the fact they only have one ugly loss to South Carolina. Earlier, Shawn Willams, a safety for Georgia called out the rest of the defense claiming they were "soft," so that tells you they don't feel like they've lived up to expectations. Clearly this is always a special game for both teams but I feel like Georgia is entering this game with special incentive to play well. If they win, the SEC East will get a lot more interesting and with their remaining schedule they could easily go 11-1 and be right back where they wanted to be at the beginning of the year.

That being said I think Florida will win. Florida is ranked 25th in rushing offense, not exactly impressive but Georgia is ranked 72nd in rushing defense. And what has Florida done all season long? Pounded the ball on the ground. With everything considered this will still be an ugly, tight game with Florida coming out on top... So I guess in the end I'd take Florida to cover but just barely.


#14 Texas Tech at #3 Kansas State

For whatever reason people are still not buying into Kansas State which is completely beyond me. What else do they need to prove? They've already gone to Norman and beaten Oklahoma and to West Virginia and beaten the Mountaineers. Well, let it be known I'm full in on the Wildcat Express as well as the Collin Klein for Heisman campaign. They both beat up on WV about the same and this leads me to another Thing That Annoys Me:

I hate it when people use the, "Well Team X beat Team Y by only 7, while Team Z beat Team Y by 21." Does that make sense? I've heard actual professionals use as part of their metrics that Kansas State beat Iowa State by only 6 while Tech beat them by 11... Really? That has always annoyed me. First of all, the Cyclones are a pretty good team in their own right, so any win over them should be considered a quality win. Secondly, football teams are not static things that behave in the exact same manner every weekend. They're composed of human beings who can have any number of issues that could affect game play. Maybe it was just a down weekend? Maybe they were looking ahead to West Virginia the next week? Or maybe luck just wasn't on their side that game? The point is don't try to draw conclusions about how things could go between two teams by how those teams did against a third party. Yes, there are some trends you can draw on like passing and rushing statistics but the score alone can't help determine outcome.  OK. Sorry for the rant, let me get off my soap box...

Anyway the Wildcats are currently favored by a touchdown which sounds about right to me. My boy Collin Klein is currently second in passing efficiency behind AJ McCarron ((whose team doesn't ask him to do very much btw so he shouldn't count)I mean obviously it should but Bama QBs should have their own stastistic)). Texas Tech though does have a pretty mean pass rush and rank 12th in pass defense.

I've gone on about this stupid game for too long so I'll cut to the point. Both of these teams are kind of evenly matched as far as offense vs. defense. So I'm going to come out of the box and say that Collin Klein is the X factor in this game. If he goes all out then Kansas St. will win but if he has a bad game and turns the ball over their special season will to an end. It'll be a pretty high scoring game with both teams in the 30s but the Wildcats come out and cover.

#5 Notre Dame at # 8 Oklahoma

This weeks marquee matchup has the Irish coming to Norman to take on the Sooners. I think this game rests entirely on the QB de jour (or week, whatever) which I guess is Everett Golson. So the best the Irish have to offer is a guy who has to this point thrown three picks and lost four fumbles? I don't think that bodes well on the road in a pretty hostile place considering the Irish rank 98th in passing offense and OK is 9th in passing defense. The only edge ND can get is if they establish a solid run game and shorten the game as best they can. /cliche

Oklahoma is currently favored by 11 1/2 but I think the Sooners have to be at least a two touchdown favorite. Landry Jones for as down as I've been on him all year seems to be putting it together throwing for 300 and 3 TDs... Against Kansas, granted, but still. Like Georgia, OK has a vibe around them which doesn't fit the fact they only have one loss to the #3 team in the country.

If you want to talk X factor in this game let's consider what Bob Stoops' MO has been in recent memory... Big night games... Hmm... Well, I hope for my sake they focus on getting past the Irish because I'm sick and tired of this undefeated bullshit. Oklahoma by 14.

#11 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama

This is probably the most difficult game for me to predict because I don't know shit about Mississippi State. I presume it's a school in Mississippi but that's all I've got. The line is currently Alabama by 24. Now, from what little I do know about MS, as I'm going to call them from now on; well, this game just seems really weird. You know how sometimes in your gut you just get a weird feeling about a game? I've got that now. Quickly looking over the stats it doesn't look good for the... Bulldogs I think? Correct me if I'm wrong. While we all know by now that Alabama is #1 in pretty much every major defensive category.

So my strategy is that when I don't know anything about a team, but what I do know doesn't look good and that team is going up against Alabama; I'm just going to take the favorite and the points.

My totally biased and completely non-objective look at Ohio State at Penn State

This is the hardest thing I've ever had to do in the ~month I've been writing this blog. But I think Ohio State is going to lose. ;_;

#1. It's at Penn State in a late game which has been awful for OSU in the past.
#2. Did you see Braxton Miller in that last game? I thought he was dead, offered up as a sacrifice to the football Gods. I know they all say he's ready to go in this game but I just don't think someone gets hurt like that and is then 100% the next week,
#3. The pattern of games in the last 3 weeks all point in this direction. Giving up a shit ton of points to Nebraska and Indiana and just barely getting by Purdue; I just don't think they have another nail-biter in them.
#4. Someone said and I fully agree that Bill O'Brien should get coach of the year just for his salvaging of Matt McGloin. This guy looked Awful with a capital A last year and the Tom Brady yellee has turned him around. If those three quarterbacks from the schools OSU has squeaked by recently can put up monster yards I'm pretty sure this dude will have a field day.
#5. Finally the line started favoring Ohio State by 3 which tells you it was basically a pick 'em to begin with and is now for PSU by 1. Before looking at the official line I was thinking Penn State by 2 or so, so we basically agree.

Maybe I'm being a little hard on OSU because it's my team by I just have zero confidence in the Buckeyes right now and with the way the line is it seems Vegas agrees with me. And writing it all down and seeing the evidence laid out only makes me feel worse.

OK I'm out before I get any more depressed, have fun watching football this weekend!