Side rant: It's been so annoying this week on ESPN because at the beginning of every show they will say something along the lines of, "Why are talking about Te'o still, why aren't we talking about the game? You know there's actually a football game this weekend and here we are talking about this hoax. I wish we could just talk about football". *talks about Te'o for the next 2 hours.
If you don't want to talk about it, don't talk about it!
Anyway this is the last game of the football season and also my last pick of the season. :( It's been a fun run, too long until next season...
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers
Did you know the head coach of these two teams are brothers? Wow, isn't that unbelievable! So, after that one of the big story lines in this game is Joe Flacco. The self proclaimed elite quarterback has made huge strides this season in shutting up the haters out there. Not that there should really have been haters to begin with, after all he has been in a playoff game every season in his career. However people always flip their shit whenever anyone says anything about themselves, just look at Randy Moss this week, another fun distraction.
One of the big reasons the Ravens could this game is simply they are the hot team right now. Ever since last season when they were one dropped pass and missed field goal away from going to the Super Bowl everything seems to have been leading to this moment. To get here Flacco has beaten both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in back to back weeks. (Even though the Ravens were extremely lucky to get past Denver, if Rahim Moore remembered the most basic of defensive fundamentals, never let your man behind you, the Ravens wouldn't even be here.)
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| That's how close the Ravens were to missing the Super Bowl.
Another big aspect of the Ravens post-season surge was the announcement that this will be Ray Lewis' last season before retirement. I think it's debatable how much of an impact this really had on the Raven's team. Like a lot of people have pointed out you shouldn't need extra motivation to play for the Super Bowl, if you do you probably shouldn't be playing. That being said from an intangibles stand point it's nice story line to go along with everything else.
For the 49ers the big most obvious story line is that of Alex Smith's benching in favor of Colin Kaepernick. While Jim Harbaugh is being hailed as the most brilliant coach in the history of the game for making the switch it just as easily could have backfired if Caepernick didn't work out. But he did and now the 49ers are playing in the Super Bowl. I've mentioned it in previous posts but the controversy over the benching stemmed from the fact that Smith had actually been having his best season before he was injured. Most likely Harbaugh had been wanting to make the switch for some time and this was the perfect opportunity. It will be really interesting to see where Smith ends up playing next year since there's a lot of teams out there that need a good quarterback and this draft class certainly doesn't have a Luck or RGIII waiting to go in the first round. Smith is a good reliable quarterback and I'm sure he'll be playing somewhere.
The other thing to note about the 49ers is there use of the pistol offense with Caepernick. To talk about how it's so effective and extremely difficult to defend you actually have to know football and how plays work so I can't talk about it. All I know is that since the quarterback starts back from the line like in a shotgun play he can quickly made a read of the defense to see if their blitzing. It also gives the quarterback a better view of the field and allows the running back a running start so he's running downhill as opposed to having to start from a full stop.
Here's a good video that explains it a lot better than my clumsy explanation just now:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CQugHijAKGQ
I think it's still too early to really tell if this is going to be the norm as far as offenses go or just a gimmick. We will need to see how defenses adjust to it next year after a full off-season to watch tape. People always point out that the fact that players Russel Wilson and Caepernick can throw the ball as well as they run it is a big reason why the pistol is so effective right now. I personally think it's here to stay but probably not as the primary offense teams will use. Let's see what Chip Kelly does at Philadelphia, I think that will be a big factor in what happens across the NFL.
/end pistol talk
For the Ravens to win they'll obviously need to slow down the Kaepernick. Momentum will only carry you so far and at the end of the day it will come down to execution. Flacco has been playing some of the best football of his career this post season, not throwing one pick, and that will need to continue. Bernard "Patriot Destroyer" Pollard would to lay out Vernon Davis and that will be a really good match up.
Almost everyone thinks this will be a very close game, Vegas has the Ravens by 4 so one really interesting aspect of this is the kicking teams and the Ravens have a clear advantage there.
Justin Tucker who you might remember from his time at Texas has been lights out since winning the job over Billy Cundiff. He's 30 of 33 including game winners against New England and his 47 yarder to beat the Broncos in double overtime. Since setting an NFL record with a 63 yard kick against Green Bay, David Akers, the 49er kicker has been really up and down. Most notably this kick that dinged off the upright against Atlanta:
If the Super Bowl comes down to a field goal I can only imagine how Akers' nerves will be.
The 49ers are trying for their 6th Super Bowl, only Pittsburgh has won more. That's a neat little bit of trivia neither team has lost a Super Bowl, even if the Ravens are at 1-0.
Anyway, the biggest key for San Francisco is going to be Kaepernick, obviously and his execution of the pistol. However, don't think he will just be running it, as I mentioned he's just as good at throwing which is what makes him so special. Even if Randy Moss isn't the best wide receiver to ever play he is definitely on a short list for that distinction and few wide receivers ever show up in big games the way he does. As a deep threat he is probably the best even in his older years.
As mentioned above the match up between Pollard and Davis should be a really good one. You remember Pollard knocking out Stevan Ridley (that was actually a really bad hit and the networks repeatedly showing him laid out in the fencing response is what's wrong with the NFL) assuming nothing like that happens that should be an interesting thing to watch.
It's been well documented that when Flacco gets pressured his numbers go way down. That's of course true for most quarterbacks but he seems especially susceptible to it. Unfortunately for Flacco the 49ers can bring pressure in a number of ways. All season the 49ers defensive line has been outstanding at pressuring quarterbacks and the Ravens tendency to stretch the field with Flacco throwing the deep ball down the seams, seems(lol) like it will lend itself to the strength of that 49ers line. Flacco needs time to drop back and for his receivers to get open and he could have a lot of trouble executing his plays if the 49ers do what they do best.
I think this Super Bowl could be one of the best ones in years and all signs point to it being very close. I've been going back and forth all week with my pick but I think I'm going to go with the Ravens. I know I've been saying this whole time momentum won't carry you all the way but looking at how Flacco's been playing this post-season I'm having a hard time justifying taking the Niners despite how phenomenal Kaepernick has been playing. I remember last year when the Giants were one loss from being knocked out of the playoffs and then caught hot streak and won the Super Bowl. Also, since this will be a close game I have zero faith in the 49ers ability to kick field goals, even close ones.
Baltimore 24 - San Francisco 21
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