I was horribly shocked this week to learn that despite everything going on at Notre Dame, there are actually some games of (minor) importance this weekend!
San Francisco at Atlanta
I think for the most part the notion that Atlanta is playing without that "monkey on their back", the monkey being Matty Ice not being able to win a playoff game, will somehow effect this game is a bunch of crap. I mean, can they breathe more easily now? Sure. But I don't really see how not having that monkey is going to slow down Collin Kaepernick, Frank Gore, or Michael Crabtree. Or make the San Francisco D forget how to tackle.
It's extremely telling that Atlanta, who are the number 1 seed in the NFC is not favored to win this game.
For one thing Atlanta has had a very difficult time this season stopping mobile quarterbacks. They gave 502 yards through the air and 202 yards on the ground to Cam Newton earlier in the season and Russell Wilson with just a little more time last weekend could very nearly have beaten the Falcons. All signs point to Kaepernick having a huge game against them.
The Falcons do have one of the most potent passing games in the league behind Matt Ryan and future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez however they have their running game to thank for making it this far. In that last game Jacquizz Rodgers and Michael Turner carried the ball 24 times for almost 200 yards. San Francisco however, is very good at stopping the run ranking 4th in the league.
As I mentioned, Atlanta, despite having the #1 seed in the conference is a four point underdog in this game. I'm inclined to think San Francisco can cover that and then some.
Going 13-3 is definitely great for Atlanta but I'm still not convinced they can hang with a team as tough and physical as San Francisco. Atlanta very nearly gave up a 20 point lead to Seattle before Ryan made some great passes to set up the field goal.
San Francisco - 31 Atlanta - 24
Baltimore at New England
Who you think will win this game depends almost entirely on how confident you are in Joe Flacco.
I'm not very.
Even if he thinks he is elite.
A lot of people seem to be hedging their bets on the fact that the Ravens came really close to beating the Patriots last year. In fact they should have if not for a very blatant dropped pass in the end zone. But since when does what happened last year have any effect on what happens this year? By that logic, Mark Sanchez beat New England in a playoff game a couple years ago but does anyone think the Jets could beat the Patriots in this game? The point is, what happened in years past doesn't have any bearing in deciding what happens in the present.
This is basically the same Patriots team as last year except now they have a little better defense. People keep saying that Tom Brady has nothing to play for because he's already one of the best ever. However, I think the fact that with a win in this game he can surpass his childhood idol, Joe Montana; I think that's a huge motivation for him.
Don't get me wrong. I'd love to see a Harbowl. Ultimately I am rooting for the Ravens for that story line. But I have a really hard time betting against Tom Brady at home in this situation. Even though he has been less than Tom Brady in the playoffs lately.
New England is giving eight points in this one but I think it'll still be a close game.
Baltimore - 24 New England - 31
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