Thursday, August 28, 2014

CFB Weekend Preview #1 - In which I talk at length about the importance of running backs

#21 Texas A&M @ #9 South Carolina
You're the man now, dawg.
The most interesting thing about this game isn't necessarily who will be on the field but rather who isn't. The two most obvious being now in Cleveland and the other in Houston. Yes, the post Manziel A&M era is upon the Aggies and to start with... It might not be that good. Vegas has Gamecocks has 10 1/2 point favorites in this one and I'm inclined to agree they will win but maybe by not that big a margin. For one SC has a fifth year senior taking over at quarterback while A&M's Kenny Hill is a sophomore albeit one who saw limited playing time in relief of Manziel last season. While A&M would like to enter the season with a win in conference play for the first time since entering the SEC they will find it extraordinarily difficult since SC has gone 18-0 in home games. Interestingly enough though, A&M is very good away, going 10-2 under Kevin Sumlin.

Another reason SC will win this game is due to their running game. Mike Davis put up seven games last season when he ran for at least 100 yards. In the ninth game last year his season came to an end due to injury however he still managed to finish fourth all time for rushing in Gamecock's history. This bodes extremely well for QB Dylan Thompson as a good running game is a inexperienced quarterbacks best friend.

Behind a no doubt raucous home crowd, solid running, and a quarterback who hopefully won't make mistakes SC should be able to put this one away. A&M almost always scores first so it will be important for SC to maintain their composure when that inevitably happens. I expect this to be a relatively low scoring game as the college football season shakes the rust off.

A&M 17 - SC 24

Boise State @ #18 Ole Miss
Having your eyes match the field you play on is a tactical advantage.
Everyone's favorite BCS buster travels to Atlanta to take on the Rebs. I admit I was pretty surprised to see that Vegas only has Ole Miss up by 10 1/2, I was expecting it to be quite a bit higher. Like 20 points even. For starters Boise State has an extremely weak offensive line, none of players were there lat year. Also, their head coach is new as Chris Petersen is now in Washington.

Elsewhere though Boise State is actually solid. They have productive receivers, a veteran quarterback who doesn't turn it over ( five interceptions in 242 attempts) but where they really shine is their running back. Jay Ajayi is definitely the best offensive option the Broncos have. Here I go about the running game again! When you're on the road in such a hostile place as the SEC I'd think being able to rely on your running game could be a huge benefit! Anyway...

That being said, remember what happened the last time the Broncos traveled to Atlanta to play an SEC game? And that team was miles better than this one with a Heisman contending quarterback at the helm. Oh yeah, they won. OK bad example. However, this Ole Miss team is not without their own set of weapons which starts with another seasoned veteran in quarterback Bo Wallace. Ole Miss is a lot people's sleeper for the SEC West and it all starts there. The one weakness for Ole Miss might be their running game however Boise's even more inexperienced defensive line probably outweaknesses it.

I expect Ole Miss to pretty comfortably win this one as I said above. I'm still confused by that line. If Ole Miss is as good as we are lead to believe, even going so far as to win the SEC West surely they are more than 10 points better than an inexperienced Boise team. Maybe Vegas knows something we don't? *queue X-Files music*.

Boise State 21- Ole Miss 35

#16 Clemson @ #12 Georgia
ayy lmao
Clemson and Georgia have certainly had interesting off-seasons but finally on Saturday we'll get to see these teams take out their aggression on each other!

Right now the lines are favoring Georgia by 9 but I expect this to come down before the weekend; Some places already have it at 7 1/2.

Now before I go any further there's one thing I really need to discuss. Running! Specifically the Georgia tandem of Gurley and Marshall, one of which could be a Heisman winner when it's all said and done. Having such decorated and dependable backs should make new Georgia quarterback Huston Mason's job feel much easier. 

I'm really feeling Clemson in this one. For one thing Mark Richt is up there with Bob "Big Game" Stoops as having a reputation for not being able to win the big ones including last year against this very team. If Georgia found it difficult to go up against Clemson last year they should find it even more so this year especially since Clemson returns virtually all of its defensive players. Indeed the key match up will have to be Clemson's front seven against those Georgia backs I already mentioned. Hopefully this game will be another high scoring shootout like last season. (Vegas has the total points at between 54-60)

Clemson 34 - Georgia 31

#14 Wisconsin @ #13 LSU
No kidding this is like the 2nd or 3rd guy who when I searched for their picture the first thing was a mug shot.
The age old battle of SEC vs. Big 10 picks up again this weekend as the Badgers travel down to Baton Rouge to take on the Tigers and Les "Grazing" Miles. If there's one thing we know for sure it's that the Badgers know who their quarterback is. It's complicated with the Tigers. LSU appears to be trying their hand at a dual quarterback system with both Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris splitting snaps.

Preface: More running back talk a.... Fuck it. You know what this is. Wisconsin will rely heavily on their star running back Melvin Gordon who was the second best in the Big 10 last year. LSU will also rely heavily on their own back, Terrence Magee. Expect to also see a bit of Kenny Hilliard as well as Leonard Fournette who was one of the best backs coming to college.

This game will be very close. Despite the fact that Wisconsin has lost its biggest non conference games each of the last two seasons while LSU has the record for longest non conference winning streak at 45, I really think the Badgers have a good shot at turning the corner. I just feel like like LSU is coming into this game with too many unanswered questions at quarterback as well as running back. In these huge games like this one having an good running game or even knowing for sure who is going to be doing it could be the edge. 

Wisconsin 24 - LSU 21

#5 Ohio State @ Navy

...
Despite all my negativity and pessimism Vegas still has the Buckeyes beating Navy by no less than 15 points. But it should be closer to 20! OK, I'll stop.

Obviously, all eyes on this game are going to be on JT Barett who hasn't played in a football game since high school. That combined with the fact that the Buckeyes have questions at a couple other positions and that said redshirt QB will be playing on the road have turned what was once a glorified warm up into an actual football game. 

In times like this you basically have to rely on your head coach and trust that he has everything under control. Thankfully the Buckeyes have one of the best in the business to do just that. 

The Buckeyes will look to ease Barett into the game through a heavy dose of *running* and overall limiting Barett's playbook. Think quick screens and slants. Navy's triple option attack will provide the highly questioned OSU defense with a good challenge. 

Overall this game will come down to not making mistakes and running the ball. Here's where Ohio State has a huge edge... And it's mathematical! Navy's starting defensive linemen weigh an average of about 250 pounds while OSU's weigh in at 300 pounds. That's a giant advantage for the Buckeyes. With the space that will be created I could run through there! Maybe not. But even an inexperienced back like Ezekiel Elliott should have no problem. 

The Buckeyes will still this one though again not as comfortably as many would like. I think even more than not making mistakes will be how they handles mistakes when they do happen. Starting a redshirt freshmen on the road is a recipe for mistakes and it will be incumbent on Meyer and the leaders on the team to not let Barrett completely lose his head when he throws a pick.

Ohio State 42 - Navy 28

No comments:

Post a Comment