chick-fil-alam-advocare bowl

Ohio vs. Louisiana Monroe (AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl)

I checked and the V100 is extremely important when you discuss this bowl.

Ohio started the season off with a bang with a win over Penn St. When that happened everyone assumed this was the start of Penn State's fall into nothingness after the sanctions but it turned out that losing would be the exception not the norm for the Nittany Lions this year. I still think Bill O' Brien was robbed of Coach of the Year.

Anyway at the beginning of the year Ohio was picked to as one of the pre-season BCS busters with a real chance to go undefeated. Indeed they were well on their way to that when at 7-0 they started losing. Ohio ended up finishing 8-4 which is still pretty good considering the somewhat tough, I mean that literally) MAC this year.

Unlike Ohio, Louisiana Monroe actually did expose a team as complete garbage in their first game, Arkansas. One of this season's great moments was this:

LMU would go on to nearly expose Auburn in the next game as well as almost beating Baylor in the game after that. There are no such things as good losses for a non AQ team to hang with an SEC and a Big12 school does say something. (That those teams aren't very good, or in the case of Auburn are terrible.)

Ohio doesn't really do anything that particularly well. They rank mediocre bad in every major category. They will probably try to hang their hat on the one thing they do well which is rush the ball where they rank 28th. 

These two teams are almost mirror images of other. I think that's the phrase I want. LMU is also not that great any one thing, even having almost the same rankings except they can pass the ball ranking 27th. 

See? You have to dig a little bit but there actually is an intriguing match up here. Two teams mediocre to bad in everything except one can rush and the other can pass.

Looking at the defenses, Ohio's pass defense is a mediocre to bad #55 while LMU is a slightly less mediocre to bad #30 at stopping the pass. 

The line this one has LMU by a touchdown and I'm pretty well inclined to agree. Both these teams have been tested in games of some national relevance but LMU's slightly less bad-ness makes me believe they should be able to come out on top.

#23 Texas vs. #13 Oregon State (Valaro Alamo Bowl)

Over the last couple years the seat under Mack Brown has been getting ever slightly so warm. It seems like most of this because of the really bad quarter back play ever since Colt McCoy left combined with really bad defense, #75 overall this year. 

Things got particularly bad for the Longhorns this year in the month of October where they lost at home to new Big 12 team West Virginia before getting demolished by archi rival Oklahoma, perhaps the biggest sin you can commit as Texas head coach.

The Longhorns come into this bowl game an OK-but-not-good-enough-for-Texas 8-4. A big reason why Mack Brown could be in trouble is that Texas fans are used to playing in games post New Years not in a meaningless bowl game on the 29th.

Oregon State coach Mike Reilly on the other hand was in contention for coach of the year with the record the Beavers had. Expected to be at the bottom of the Pac 12, Oregon State surprised everyone by going 9-3 including nearly upsetting Stanford. 

I get the feeling that aside from stats Oregon State should win this if for nothing else they want to be here a lot more than Texas. It seems like it'd be difficult for Mack Brown to get his team pumped up for this game despite it being a virtual home game. But we'll look at the stats anyway.

Texas is another team that doesn't do anything that well. Their well documented quarterback woes have given them a surprising-for-how-bad-it-is #38. Texas' weak spot though it in the rushing defense which is an abysmal 101. Thankfully for them Oregon State is just as bad at rushing the ball ranking #99.

Oregon State will primarily pass the ball behind pretty good quarterback Sean Mannion. The Beavers rank #16th in passing offense, so they clearly know their way around the football. Or something. Conversely Texas is only OK at defending the pass ranking #39.

I feel like Oregon State clearly has the advantage in this game both with the numbers and the intangibles, like I said it just seems like they want to be here more. The line in this game has Oregon State by 3 and I feel they could easily beat that.

#8 LSU vs. #14 Clemson (Chick-fil-A Bowl)

This is definitely the best game before 2013. It's scary to think that if the Mayans were right we wouldn't have been able to watch.

LSU comes into this one with its only two losses against Florida which retrospectively isn't very good at all and the other of course being against Alabama. LSU's defense has definitely been carrying them this year as the bad quarterbacking post Jordan Jefferson continued. Despite the game against Alabama Zach Mettenberger hasn't been that great. 

Clemson also enters the game with 2 losses. One against Florida State and the other against rival South Carolina. 

It's definitely really cliche but this game should be really good because of the smothering defense of LSU against the top offense of Clemson. This a really weird stat but Clemson has only scored less 40 points in a game three times this entire season while LSU has only allowed over 20 points three times. 

I think the who wants to be here more factor will definitely... Be a factor in this game. LSU is used to playing in BCS bowls, especially against another SEC team. And to be reduced to playing in December against an ACC team is probably a slap in the face. Clemson on the other hand is probably stoked to be playing in this bowl against such great competition and considers what I just said about them to be a slap in the face. So they definitely get the advantage in that category.

Clemson's quarterback, who should everyone should probably know by now, Tajh Boyd is one of hte premier quarterbacks in college football. With the 13th best passing offense and a 66% completion percentage and 34 touchdowns to 13 interceptions he definitely should be able to give the LSU defense a run for its money. Before you go ahead and put this one in the bag though it's worth noting that against ranked AP teams his stats come down significantly. Clemson is also competent at running the ball ranking 34th. 

What else can be said about the LSU defense? We know it's good. It ranks #8. That means its good. You should also be pretty aware that LSU isn't that great on offense. They rank #78. That's not very good. 

So this game is going to come down to LSU's pass defense and Clemson's pass offense. It's a really intriguing match up as LSU is #20 and like I said earlier Clemson is #13. The x factor in this game could be LSU's rushing defense. In fact it better be if LSU is to have a chance. 

Oh and this is probably the only time where'd you ever mention this but it is actually a pretty big deal that LSU's "star punter" (lmao I can't even type that with a straight face) Brad Wing has been suspended from the game for violating team rules. He always seemed like a gigantic douche to me.

LSU is favored in this one by 5 but I'm taking Clemson for the upset. LSU relies too much on their defense and in this sort of game which doesn't really have any meaning I don't think they'll be as revved up as you'd need to be against such a powerful offense as the one in Clemson. Clemson's pretty bad defense should be able to keep them in the game enough to win.